Aluminum prices are approaching the 20,900 mark again, with aluminum scrap prices rising slightly overall [Daily Review of Aluminum Scrap]

SMM reported on July 3:

Today, spot primary aluminum prices rose by 50 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day. SMM A00 aluminum ingot prices closed at 20,860 yuan/mt, and aluminum scrap market prices generally followed suit with a slight increase. Amid the traditional off-season, downstream scrap utilization enterprises are experiencing weak order releases, with purchases primarily driven by immediate needs.

Today, the centralized quoted price for baled UBC aluminum scrap ranges from 15,350 to 15,850 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive), while the centralized quoted price for shredded aluminum tense scrap ranges from 15,800 to 17,300 yuan/mt (tax-exclusive). By product, baled UBC aluminum scrap prices increased by 50 yuan/mt MoM from yesterday, following the upward trend of aluminum prices. Except for regions like Anhui and Hubei, where supply shortages have led to difficulties in purchasing for downstream scrap utilization enterprises, prompting them to raise purchase prices, ADC12 aluminum shavings and shredded aluminum tense scrap prices increased by 100-200 yuan/mt. In other regions, the quoted prices for aluminum tense scrap remained stable MoM from yesterday.

In terms of the price difference between A00 aluminum and aluminum scrap, the price difference between A00 aluminum and mixed aluminum extrusion scrap free of paint in Foshan increased by 60 yuan/mt MoM from yesterday to 1,857 yuan/mt, while the price difference between A00 aluminum and mechanical casting aluminum scrap in Shanghai widened by 22 yuan/mt MoM from yesterday to 1,845 yuan/mt.

Next week, the aluminum scrap market is expected to hover at highs, with cautious price adjustments. Supported by tight supply, shredded aluminum tense scrap prices are expected to remain resilient, fluctuating rangebound within the 15,800-17,400 yuan/mt range. Baled UBC aluminum scrap prices may continue to decline under the pressure of off-season demand, possibly dropping to 15,200-15,700 yuan/mt. Subsequent developments will require close attention to marginal changes in raw material circulation (such as ADC12 aluminum shavings supply) and signals of recovery in terminal orders.

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